CSIRO's Wealth from Oceans Flagship and its partners have developed Sedsim, a high-performance computing program used to predict seabed changes over long periods of time.

This project draws together CSIRO's expertise in Petroleum Resources and Atmospheric Research, with international input from the US based Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), Geoscience Australia (GA) and, in the early stages of the project, Stanford University.

Craig Roy, Director of Wealth from Oceans Flagship says, "This research is a world first, with the Flagship setting the pace globally in seabed modelling. We are providing the foundation capabilities for understanding how the seabed will change based on realistic climate change scenarios".

The research team believes this could have a major impact in predicting the risk to billion dollar infrastructure.

Project leader Dr Cedric Griffiths says, "We know the sediment that makes up the Australian seabed varies tremendously from region to region and will respond differently to future climate change. One of the main applications will be to assist in the appropriate design of oil and gas pipelines, in both low and high risk areas.

"If we can predict how the future movement of waves, currents and the seabed will affect pipelines, we can also help prevent fractures and spillages."

Mr Roy adds, "Industry, particularly the oil and gas sector, will be the major beneficiaries of this research which has the potential to reduce capital expenditure of seabed pipelines, while reducing risks of over and under-engineering pipeline construction. Other beneficiaries will include industry regulators and the insurance sector."

Sedsim seabed modelling brings together an advanced sediment transport model, capable of predicting sediment movement over decades, with advanced climate change models, specifically targeted at Australia.

"It can also be applied globally using a state of the art numeric model to predict sediment erosion, transport and deposition in a wide variety of sedimentary environments, including shallow to deep marine. The program can model the way sediment responds to waves, current and tidal effects," Dr Griffiths says.

This work will shed light on how the seabed characteristics may change over the next 50 years, and is aligned closely with the National Oceans Office's Regional Marine Planning activities.

An initial simulation of Australia's southeast has been completed at two kilometre resolution, each month for the next 50 years.

Dr Griffiths says "There are currently about 1000km of offshore pipeline in Australia's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and another 1000km of pipeline proposed to be laid in Australian and PNG waters in coming years.

"In the next decade, it is predicted that up to $10 billion may be spent on thousands of kilometres of offshore pipelines worldwide. Substantial environmental and costs savings could be made if these pipelines can be designed to suit both the present sub-sea environment and the future seabed conditions."

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