As Africa's most populous country and its biggest economy, Nigeria would play a leading role in any intervention threatened by the ECOWAS regional bloc, which Nigerian President Bola Tinubu announced on July 30.
On Saturday, the country's Senate met behind closed doors to discuss the situation, and afterwards its president, Godswill Akpabio, set out their position to journalists.
"The Senate calls on the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as chairman of ECOWAS to further encourage other leaders of ECOWAS to strengthen the political and diplomatic options," he said.
Nigeria's constitution requires Senate approval to deploy armed forces for combat duty outside the country, unless the president determines that national security is under "imminent threat or danger".
- Risk to civilians -
Senators from northern Nigerian states, seven of which share a combined border of roughly 1,500 kilometres (900 miles) with Niger, have already advised against any intervention until all other options had been exhausted.
"The consequences will be casualties among the innocent citizens who go about their daily business," Suleiman Kawu Sumaila, spokesman for the Northern Senators Forum, said just after the ECOWAS ultimatum.
The northern regions have deep social and trade links with southern Niger, where local populations share many cultural, religious and linguistic heritages.
Sumaila also warned of insecurity risks if Niger is destabilised as the Sahel region battles long-running Islamist insurgencies.
"We are also aware of the situation of Mali, Burkina Faso and Libya, which may affect the seven Northern states if military force is used," he said.
Mali and Burkina Faso have warned that any regional intervention in Niger would be considered "a declaration of war" on them. Both are run by military rulers who toppled democratically elected leaders.
Sumaila warned that there would be serious implications for the country "if military force is used without exhausting all the diplomatic channels".
- 'Overstretched' -
Those concerns were shared by the country's largest opposition grouping, which denounced the potential military operation in Niger as "absolutely thoughtless".
"The Nigerian military have been overstretched over the years battling terrorism and all manners of insurgency that are still very active," the Coalition of United Political Parties said Saturday.
Besides insurgency groups in the northeast, Nigeria's security forces are battling organised crime gangs in the centre and northwest, and separatist groups in the southeast.
The country has also plunged deeper into economic hardship with Tinubu's decision to end fuel subsidies last May.
His goal was to free up funds for investment, in agriculture and social programmes in particular. The immediate result however was a quadrupling of fuel prices for a country where nearly half the population is estimated to live in extreme poverty.
"Nigeria, in its current socioeconomic state, cannot afford such a costly intervention," the coalition argued.
"President Bola Tinubu should avoid plunging Nigeria's fragile economy into more depression by intervening militarily in another country."
A potential Niger intervention has also been criticised on social media in Nigeria, with users voicing concern about the roughly 200,000 Nigerian refugees who have fled jihadist violence to seek shelter in Niger.
Others worry about a potential influx of refugees from Niger, which could further strain the humanitarian crisis facing much of Nigeria's north.
Pressure mounts on Niger coup leaders as deadline nears
Niamey (AFP) Aug 5, 2023 -
Pressure mounted on Saturday on the leaders of a coup in Niger on the eve of a deadline set by West African regional bloc ECOWAS for the military to relinquish control or face possible armed intervention.
Former colonial power France, with which the junta broke military ties shortly after taking power on July 26, said it would "firmly" back whatever course of action the ECOWAS bloc took after the Sunday deadline expired.
"The future of Niger and the stability of the entire region are at stake," the office of French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said, after she met Niger's prime minister, Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, in Paris.
ECOWAS military chiefs of staff have agreed a plan for a possible intervention to respond to the crisis, the latest of several coups to hit Africa's Sahel region since 2020.
"All the elements that will go into any eventual intervention have been worked out," ECOWAS commissioner Abdel-Fatau Musah said on Friday.
These included "the resources needed, and including the how and when we are going to deploy the force", he added.
"We want diplomacy to work, and we want this message clearly transmitted to them [the junta] that we are giving them every opportunity to reverse what they have done," Musah said.
Niger has played a key part in Western strategies to combat jihadist insurgencies that have plagued the Sahel since 2012, with France and the United States stationing around 1,500 and 1,000 troops in the country, respectively.
Yet anti-French sentiment in the region is on the rise, while Russian activity, often through the Wagner mercenary group, has grown. Russia has warned against armed intervention from outside Niger.
- 'Error of judgement' -
The coup "is an error of judgement that goes totally against the interests of the country", French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu told AFP in an interview on Saturday.
He noted that Niger, one of the poorest countries in the world, relied heavily on foreign aid that risked being pulled if President Mohamed Bazoum is not reinstated as chief of state.
The junta has warned it will meet force with force.
Mali and Burkina Faso, where military juntas have taken power since 2020, have also warned that any regional intervention would be tantamount to a "declaration of war" against them.
Bazoum, 63, has been held by the coup plotters with his family in his official Niamey residence since July 26.
In a column in The Washington Post on Thursday -- his first lengthy statement since his detention -- Bazoum said a successful putsch would "have devastating consequences for our country, our region and the entire world".
Bazoum, who in 2021 won an election that ushered in Niger's first-ever transfer of power from one civilian government to another, urged "the US government and the entire international community to help us restore our constitutional order".
Nigeria has cut electricity supplies to its neighbour Niger, raising fears for the humanitarian situation in the country, while Niamey has closed the vast Sahel country's borders, complicating food deliveries.
Washington said that it had suspended some aid programmes but pledged that "life-saving humanitarian and food assistance will continue".
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