Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Earth Science News .




POLITICAL ECONOMY
Outside View: Banks cooking up another financial crisis
by Peter Morici
College Park, Md. (UPI) Jun 17, 2013


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

Wall Street is cooking up another crisis -- making shoddy loans and selling worthless securities to investors hungry for higher yields than certificates of deposit and government bonds offer.

Dodd-Frank banking reforms imposed very costly regulations on mortgage and commercial lending. Regional banks, which have solid knowledge of smaller businesses, couldn't bear these costs and sold out to large Wall Street institutions. Now a handful of money center banks control more than half the deposits and lendable money.

Although big banks have branches everywhere and are flush with funds, they don't know much about which businesses are likely to repay what they borrow.

Banks aren't carrying many mortgages on their books. They are merely conduits for the Federal National Mortgage Association -- Fannie Mae.

But business loans have recovered to pre-financial crisis levels and bank examiners at the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Federal Reserve are alarmed about their lending standards.

Too often loans are made to businesses with inadequate cash flow -- paper profits are important to stock investors but banks focus on cash flow to evaluate whether an enterprise can pay up each month. Also, many loans carry weak covenants and collateral.

Banks are lending at today's low interest rates with alarmingly long maturities. That is troublesome because banks' cost of funds go up and down as the Federal Reserve tightens and loosens monetary policy.

Many economists expect gross domestic product growth to pick up the latter half of this year and next and for the Federal Reserve to start pushing up interest rates. Then banks will lose money -- lots of it -- on 5- and 10-year loans made today. If the economy doesn't pick up -- economists have been known to be wrong -- then loans made on questionable cash flow and weak collateral will fail.

Either way, banks are at the casino again!

But alas banks are shunting off a lot of their risky bets onto witless investors thanks to the new boom in derivatives trading. Remember those nifty bonus generating contraptions that made 28-year-old MBAs millionaires and wrecked AIG and Citigroup.

Manhattan financiers are once again bundling questionable corporate bonds and bank loans into investment securities -- Collateralized Debt Obligations -- for sale to wealthy individuals and retirees through hedge funds and unethical brokers.

When the losses on shaky bonds and loans come, big banks, bless their generosity, will spread the headaches around. Wrecked personal finances and broken dreams will follow, and consumer spending will slow, taking the economic recovery into the drink.

Not to be out done by their predecessors, modern bankers are also writing lots of "synthetic securities." Those generate returns to investors, not from the cash flow on loan repayments but rather from bets made by third parties about whether loans will succeed or fail. Those have as much place in sound banking as nepotism does in government employment.

As in pre-crisis days, the total value of derivatives outstanding is many multiples of the actual value of the U.S. economy. When the loans and derivatives fail, many who have made promises to pay up won't have the cash -- just like 2008.

Look for bank balance sheets to be rocked, lots of wealthy folks to file for bankruptcy, and the economy to suffer another migraine.

Depressing? They don't call economics the dismal science for nothing.

(Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. Follow him on Twitter: @pmorici1)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

.


Related Links
The Economy






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








POLITICAL ECONOMY
World Bank cuts China's economic growth forecast
Beijing (AFP) June 13, 2013
The World Bank has slashed its growth forecast for China's economy this year to 7.7 percent from 8.4 percent, warning of a potential "sharp" slowdown triggered by a fall in investment. The projection is lower than the 7.8 percent expansion the country recorded in 2012, which was its weakest in 13 years, and comes as a slew of data indicate the economy is struggling to pick up pace. "The ... read more


POLITICAL ECONOMY
China work safety probe finds 'many' problems: official

Sandbags and raw nerves as flood peak hits Germany

More radioactive leaks reported at Fukushima plant

Japan disaster cash spent on counting turtles: report

POLITICAL ECONOMY
MakerBot Opens New Manufacturing Factory in Brooklyn

Echoes can reveal the shape of a room

Chinese astronauts complete warm-up maintenance work in space module

Raytheon awarded contract for F-15C AESA radars

POLITICAL ECONOMY
At least 60 feared dead as monsoon lashes north India

Ocean acidification killing oysters by inhibiting shell formation

Study of oceans' past raises worries about their future

Egypt, Ethiopia agree to further talks over Nile row

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Study finds atmospheric conditions led to record Greenland ice melting

Warm ocean water melting Antarctic ice from bottom

Ancient trapped water explains Earth's first ice age

US senators urge Obama to block Alaska mine

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Key investor pushes for Smithfield breakup

Genetic diversity could be key to survival of honeybee colonies

Pesticides slash water life by 42 percent: study

Rice research investment delivers sixfold return

POLITICAL ECONOMY
5.8-magnitude quake strikes central Mexico

Hungary president slams lagging EU flood aid

Seismic safety of light-frame steel construction being tested

Germany eyes 8bn-euro fund for flood victims: reports

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Six soldiers killed in attack on Mozambique armoury: reports

First pictures of Algeria's Bouteflika since mini-stroke

Gunfire at paramilitary barracks in Niger capital: residents

'Scorched earth' tactics in Sudan's Blue Nile: Amnesty

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Geographic context may have shaped sounds of different languages

Penn Research Indentifies Bone Tumor in 120,000-Year-Old Neandertal Rib

Weapons testing data determines brain makes new neurons into adulthood

World's 'oldest woman' dies in China: family




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement