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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Outside View: Dodd reforms won't fix banks

`EU presents vague plan for Greece rescue
Brussels (UPI) Mar 16, 2009 - EU countries Tuesday pledged to help Greece financially if necessary but the details of such a bailout plan remain vague. Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said eurozone finance ministers had agreed on a plan, "that will allow us to take a decision on a coordinated action, which could be activated swiftly in the case of need." Juncker, who led the ministers' meeting in Brussels, didn't go into detail about the plan but it seems to involve coordinated action from all 16 eurozone members. "The instrument would not consist of loan guarantees from euro-area countries to Greece but probably of a coordinated action at European level, which would make bilateral aid available," he was quoted as saying by Deutsche Welle. "All members of the euro zone will participate in this collective effort." EU leaders will discuss the details of such a bailout plan at a summit next week, Juncker said.

There has been significant maneuvering around such a plan. Brussels still hopes that Greece won't need the aid. The European Union is optimistic that Athens can sell more bonds to bring under control its debt, currently towering at more than $400 billion. Athens has in the past called for EU bailout money to help contain the crisis but leaders across the eurozone have been resolute in calling on Greece to cut costs first. They fear a bailout for a country that for years has been fiscally irresponsible would send the wrong signal across the continent. On the other hand, Greece's fiscal crisis is threatening to destabilize the euro, the common currency of 16 EU members. Moreover, a possible Greek default could have serious consequences for the entire European financial structure -- so Brussels is poised to step in once the situation becomes unbearable.

Athens earlier this month adopted wide-ranging austerity measures worth around $6.5 billion to start bringing its deficit under control. It also raised more than $6.6 billion by selling 10-year bonds. While European leaders, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund lauded the measures they sparked strong protests in Greece. Greece isn't a lone case in Europe; it's part of a group with the unflattering acronym title PIGS -- also including Portugal, Ireland and Spain. These are countries hit hard by the financial crisis, the collapse of their property markets and soaring unemployment. Yet even in seemingly stable nations, public sector financing has suffered since the crisis. Germany, Europe's biggest economy, is considering taking out loans worth $110 billion to finance its 2010 budget of $440 billion -- that's an all-time debt record. Forecasts warn that Britain is on course to borrow the equivalent of 12.8 percent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year 2009/10. Such a lending would top even the 12.7 percent forecast for Greece.
by Peter Morici
College Park, Md. (UPI) Mar 16, 2009
America's banks are as vulnerable today as before the credit crisis and reforms offered by Senate Finance Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd won't fix things.

Prior to the crisis, Americans spent vastly more than they earned, borrowing against overvalued homes through creative mortgages. Banks offered adjustable rate mortgages and other products that unrealistically assumed homeowners could shoulder much bigger monthly payments after five years or refinance homes at higher values. Often incomes and home values were not verified and similar games abounded on credit cards.

Many borrowers knew they faced calamity but cultivated delusions that their paychecks would miraculously increase and housing prices would perpetually rise to finance lifestyles built on fantasies more than facts.

Bankers played, because they often sold dodgy loans to big Wall Street financial houses who bundled those into bonds called collateralized debt obligations sold to unwitting investors. The latter were persuaded by the availability of credit default swaps -- insurance contracts that promised to pay if mortgages failed.

When the housing bubble burst, we learned financial firms wrote the swaps with woefully inadequate collateral to cover obligations.

Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and many other banks were caught stuck with CDOs they either failed to peddle or purchased. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson knew large banks held CDOs in special Structured Investment Vehicles but saw no threat.

Dodd, D-Conn., proposes to fix all this with a new consumer protection agency -- to keep Americans from borrowing too much. However, the Federal Reserve, FDIC and other regulators have already put screws to the banks and loans are now much tougher to get.

The history of the U.S Congress meddling on behalf of consumers is to force banks to make imprudent loans to unqualified consumers and to charge lower fees than the resulting risks warrant.

Simply, at U.S. President Barack Obama's behest, Dodd is proposing a new agency that could undo good reforms already under way.

To keep banks, big financial houses and pesky hedge funds from mischief, Dodd also proposes a Systemic Risk Council of the chiefs of federal regulatory agencies to head off future debacles, but before the recent crisis Paulson and other regulators knew about the CDOs and SIVs and saw no danger. This council will accomplish little.

Further, to cope with the next collapse of a "too big to fail" financial house, Dodd would tax big financial firms to create a $50 billion bailout fund and federal regulators would be empowered to liquidate the firm using those funds to grease the process.

No one has done a reality check on these ideas.

Federal regulators already have that resolution power regarding Citigroup and AIG, and their bailouts required much more than $50 billion to finance. Simply, Federal regulators have found it impossible in a severe environment of deleveraging to sell off the good parts of those companies quickly to get back the taxpayers' money. It's fantasy to believe such authority would have accomplished a different outcome at Lehman Brothers.

Better discipline is required for banks and big financial houses, such as adequate collateral under swaps and better discipline on portfolio diversification.

Commercial banking -- taking deposits and making loans -- should once again be separated from other financial activities such as creating, selling and holding securities.

These would no doubt face fierce opposition from Wall Street, and the Treasury is disinclined to truly challenge J.P. Morgan and others.

Sadly, the recent crisis is sowing the seeds of an ever greater financial debacle. The Obama administration and Congress are proving simply too inadequate to the task.

(Peter Morici is a professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)



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