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Peace and calm for 2009, but not economic recovery: soothsayers

UBS sells its stake in Bank of China
Switzerland's biggest bank UBS said Wednesday it had sold about 3.4 billion shares in Bank of China through a placing to institutional investors. In a statement released Wednesday, UBS said the shares were acquired in 2005 in preparation for the Bank of China's 11 billion dollar initial public offering to the international market. But the investment bank stressed it would maintain its close relationship with its Chinese counterpart. "UBS remains committed to its business relationship with the Bank of China and to its businesses in China as a whole, where UBS will continue to develop its already strong client franchise," the statement said. Sources told Dow Jones Newswires that UBS sold the shares to 15 participants at a 12 percent discount to Bank of China's Wednesday closing price, raising 808 million dollars. The bank has lost billions of dollars in the United States subprime homeloan crisis and the ensuing financial turmoil. It has already written down about 46.9 billion dollars' worth of assets.

China central bank vows 'moderately loose' monetary policy
China's central bank said Wednesday it would maintain its "moderately loose" monetary policy to bolster the economy amid the global crisis, summarising decisions made at a recent key meeting. The People's Bank of China published its policy stance following the fourth-quarter gathering of its monetary policy committee, which was held "recently", it said in a statement on its website. "We will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, to further strengthen financial support for the development of the economy," the statement said. "We will maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and facilitate the stable growth in credit." The meeting was held amid growing concern that China's heavily export-dependent economy will be impacted severely by the global slowdown. The World Bank has forecast growth in China's economy of 7.5 percent in 2009, the lowest level in 19 years, increasing the pressure on the central bank to loosen its monetary policies. The central bank also said in the statement it would maintain the "basic stability of the exchange rate of the yuan at a reasonable and balanced level." China's currency has virtually frozen against the US dollar for most of the year, exposing the nation to accusations that it is keeping its currency from rising in a bid to help exporters.
by Staff Writers
Hong Kong (AFP) Dec 31, 2008
The world can look forward to peace and harmony in 2009, but Chinese soothsayers warned that the road to economic recovery will be long.

The Year of the Rat, marked by an unprecedented, global financial crisis, will give way to a much more stable Year of the Ox, Chinese astrologists and feng shui masters predicted.

"The soil represents a garden or a green field, a feng shui symbol for harmony, relaxation, and recovery," Raymond Lo, Hong Kong feng shui expert, told AFP.

Chinese fortune-tellers study the changing balance of the five spiritual elements they believe form the core of the universe -- gold, wood, water, fire, and soil. A person's element can be calculated by using the exact time and date of his birth.

Each of the elements is further divided into the yin and the yang strands, the two complementary qualities representing respectively the passive and active side of nature.

Coincidentally, Lo said, quite a few world leaders in 2009 were associated with "yin soil", including US President-elect Barack Obama and French president Nicolas Sarkozy.

"People belonging to the yin soil tend to be more charming and charitable. They love peace rather than war. They are usually the ones who contribute to science and humanity," he said.

Examples include Leonardo da Vinci, Charles Darwin, Abraham Lincoln, and Sigmund Freud, he said.

However, the feng shui master said he did not expect Obama or other state leaders to be able to turn around the global economic situation in 2009 because the element of fire -- which stands for the force that motivates financial activities -- is missing for most of next year.

"It is a year for Obama to lay the foundation for his administration, rather than achieve anything.

"The financial markets will go up a little in the first couple of months but this will be short-lived. Investors are bound to be disappointed in the end," he said.

The prediction is similar to the forecasts of many financial analysts.

Sarkozy's administration will be more stable than it was in 2008, because the strength of water will weaken in 2009, said Lo.

"There was a lot of water in 2008, which is not good for a yin soil leader because it will flood the soil," he said.

The Chinese calendar moves in 60-year cycles, meaning the world will experience similar events in the new year to those that took place 60 years ago.

In 1949, the People's Republic of China was established by communist leader Mao Zedong. Lo said that 2009's year of the Ox could similarly see a new world order being forged.

Professions or events that can be associated with wood will fare well next year because the element thrives on soil, Lo said.

He predicted that former US Vice President Al Gore, who has since turned himself into an environmental activist, will make big progress in his efforts to combat global warming.

Next year will also be good for professions that are related to wood, paper, and energy, including fashion, news media, entertainment, oil and air travel, said Lo.

Mak Ling-ling, a celebrity astrologist and feng shui master, said the financial markets would be very quiet next year and economic problems would be particularly acute in the west.

"Businesses will be even worse than now. Social order will be disturbed, with the number of fraud cases will rise," she said, but added that the situation would improve after next year.

While many of the wealthiest and the most powerful businessmen in Hong Kong will continue to suffer in the present financial climate, Mak said some low-profile individuals would be able to seize the chance to profit from the crisis with their courage and original ideas.

She warned the Hong Kong government against relying too heavily on Beijing, saying China will have its own problems to solve next year.

"I think it will be unwise for Hong Kong to keep hoping that it can forever rely on mainland Chinese tourists to boost the domestic economy," she said.

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Commentary: Annus Horribilis 2009
Washington (UPI) Dec 29, 2008
In "Countdown to a Meltdown," The Atlantic's James Fallows describes "America's Coming Economic Crisis, a look back from the election of 2016," when the 46th president of the United States will be the first since before the civil war to be neither Democrat nor Republican.







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