More food is required and can be transported around the world within shortest periods of time. However, the historically developed food production systems do not reflect the biophysical potential of our ecosystems. The study shows that food is not produced at places where that would be most efficient in terms of area use, water consumption, and CO2 emissions. Instead, deforestation is being continued to obtain cropland and pastures and arid fields are being irrigated. These activities have a massive negative impact on water availability and carbon storage.
But what if fields, pastures, and natural vegetation were moved to where it would be most efficient? What if croplands were restricted to areas that do not require extensive irrigation? To answer these questions, the researchers from KIT and HeiGIT combined a dynamic vegetation model with an optimization algorithm to study alternative global land use scenarios and their impacts.
Optimized Land Use Would Increase Food Production by More than 80 Percent and CO2 Storage Capacity by Three Percent on the Average
The researchers modeled optimized land use for climate conditions of an optimistic scenario and a presently more realistic climate change scenario for the near and far future (2033 to 2042 and 2090 to 2099). The result: Spatial reorganization alone would increase food production by an average of 83 percent, water availability by eight percent, and CO2 storage capacity by three percent. These increases would be even higher, if one of the three parameters would be given priority over the remaining two.
"Our study exclusively covered the biophysical potential as the basis for land use that would consider the target conflicts much better," says first author Dr. Anita Bayer from KIT's Campus Alpine in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. "We found that there are indeed regions in which certain land uses would be advantageous or optimal." According to the study, tropical and boreal forests would have to be preserved or reforested due to their excellent CO2 storage capacities rather than being used as croplands or pastures.
Temperate latitudes would have to serve as cropland rather than pastures. This would compensate area loss due to the reforestation of tropical and boreal forests. The wide and open tropical and subtropical savannas and grasslands would have to be used as pastures and for food production. "This optimal land use scheme turned out to be very stable in our study," Bayer says.
Deliberate Change of Land Use
The study shows that regional practice strongly differs from the theoretically achievable optimum. Massive landuse changes would be required to make better use of the biophysical potential, while increasingincrease food production, water availability, and carbon storage capacity at the same time.
"Although such major land use changes appear to be unrealistic, we should be aware of the fact that climate change will be associated with big changes of cultivation areas anyway," says Professor Sven Lautenbach, researcher of HeiGIT and the Geographical Institute of Heidelberg University. "We should not let these changes happen, but try to manage them taking into account the biophysical potential."
"Securing global food supply is one of the major challenges of our time and climate change will aggravate this problem in many regions," says Professor Almut Arneth from the Atmospheric Environmental Research Division of KIT's Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, KIT'S Campus Alpine in Garmisch-Partenkirchen.
"Our study clearly shows that in spite of unfavorable climatic changes, optimized land use could significantly increase agricultural yields and limit area consumption at the same time. It is now important to find ways to implement land use changes that take into account both biophysical conditions and social aspects."
Research Report:Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon
Relevance Scores:
1. Agriculture and Food Manufacturing Industry Analyst: 9/10
2. Stock and Finance Market Analyst: 7/10
3. Government Policy Analyst: 8/10
Comprehensive Analyst Summary:
Agriculture and Food Manufacturing Industry Analyst:
This article discusses a study that explores optimizing land use for enhancing food production and carbon storage. With food demand surging due to increasing global population, the study argues that the current land use is not efficient in terms of water use, area, and CO2 emissions. Researchers propose a spatial reorganization that could increase food production by an average of 83%.
Stock and Finance Market Analyst:
From a stock and finance market perspective, optimized land use can offer promising returns for agriculture-based companies and technology providers that aid in land use optimization. Water utility companies might also benefit from the proposed 8% increase in water availability. Conversely, firms heavily invested in less sustainable agricultural practices might face challenges.
Government Policy Analyst:
The findings also hold significant implications for policy-makers. Climate change aggravates food security issues, making land use an urgent matter. The study suggests that managed changes could benefit food production, water availability, and carbon storage, thus aligning with multiple policy goals. Initiatives for sustainable land use can also attract international cooperation and funding.
Comparison with Past 25 Years:
Over the past 25 years, the Agriculture and Food Manufacturing industry has faced numerous challenges such as climate change, water scarcity, and sustainability issues. GMOs, precision agriculture, and farm-to-table movements have been attempts to address these issues. The study's emphasis on optimized land use correlates with these trends but takes a broader, more ecological view. It also goes beyond just food production to consider environmental impact, something that has only recently been prioritized in agricultural practices.
Investigative Questions:
1. How feasible is the implementation of optimized land use changes from a technological and infrastructural standpoint?
2. What are the social and economic impacts of shifting croplands and pastures as suggested?
3. How would these land use changes affect the current global supply chain of food and agriculture commodities?
4. What policies can be formulated to encourage optimized land use without causing socio-economic upheaval?
5. How can financial markets facilitate or hamper the transition to optimized land use as proposed in the study?
The article touches on key aspects that concern multiple sectors, offering a cross-disciplinary perspective on a problem that is immediate and long-term. It opens up avenues for collaboration and synergies between these sectors to address global challenges.
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