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Profile of swine flu begins to emerge: study

15 more deaths push up Mexico swine flu toll to 179
Mexico's swine flu death toll rose to 179 after 15 more deaths were recorded within a week, the health ministry said Tuesday. The number of cases from A(H1N1) rose to 20,681, in the third worst affected country after the United States and Argentina. All regions in the country where the outbreak began in April have now been affected, with central and southern regions worst hit. Mexico is seeking a World Bank loan of around 400 million dollars to help finance 20 million swine flu vaccines it has ordered amid preparations for an expected resurgence of the virus when temperatures drop in November.

Third Australian piggery quarantined with swine flu
A third Australian piggery was placed in quarantine due to suspected swine flu Tuesday as the number of human deaths from the virus reached 132. Authorities ordered a biosecurity lockdown at the piggery in Queensland state amid concerns influenza A(H1N1) could mutate and return to humans in a more deadly form. Two other piggeries, one in New South Wales and the other in Victoria, are already under lockdown after tests confirmed animals had been infected with the virus. Biosecurity Queensland chief vet Ron Glanville said samples from pigs at the latest affected property were being examined and results should be available within days. "Biosecurity officers have placed the piggery under quarantine and are implementing strict on-site biosecurity measures," Glanville said. He said the piggery would be isolated so the infection could "burn out" within the pig population as quickly as possible. Authorities say swine flu in pigs does not affect pork products. Health experts fear swine flu in humans, which is easily spread but has a relatively low fatality rate, could mutate in other animals and emerge in a more virulent form. Swine flu has hit 33,844 people in Australia, with 440 people hospitalised, 100 of them in intensive care. Human trials are underway for a vaccine, with mass immunisation of the entire population scheduled to begin in October.
by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) Aug 25, 2009
More than half the fatalities from swine flu have been among young adults, according to one of the first surveys to gather mortality data from across the globe for the new A(H1N1) virus.

The analysis of 574 pandemic deaths from 28 countries through mid-July, released this week, also found that being diabetic or obese significantly boosted the risk of dying.

Neither children nor the elderly are as vulnerable as initial reports indicated, found the study, published by Eurosurveillance, the monitoring arm of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

"Most deaths (51 percent) occurred in the age group of 20-to-49 year-olds, but there is considerable variation depending on country or continent," the researchers reported.

Only 12 percent of those who died were 60 or older.

All of these features -- high mortality among young adults and the obese, but not the very young or elderly -- are sharply different than for the seasonal flu.

More than 90 percent of deaths from seasonal flu -- which claims 250,000 to 500,000 lives annually according to the WHO -- are in people over 65.

By contrast, with the pandemic H1N1, "the elderly seem to be protected from infection to some extent, perhaps due to previous exposure to similar strains," the study conjectured.

Persons born before 1957, other studies have suggested, were almost certainly exposed to the milder seasonal A(H1N1) viruses that evolved from the terrible pandemic of 1918, which left some 40 million dead.

With the 2009 strain, "when infection does occur, however, the percentage of deaths in elderly cases seems to be higher that in others."

One common target across both pandemic and season strains is pregnant women, according to the study, led by Philippe Barboza of the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance.

On Tuesday, the European Union said pregnant women should have priority in the distribution of vaccines, along with health workers and people with underlying health problems.

The data underlying the study also suggests that about six people die for every 1,000 infections, two or three times the rate of seasonal flu, but far less than the deadly pandemic of 1918.

The researchers caution, however, that it is far too early to calculate the "case-fatality ratio" (CFR) with much accuracy.

"Evaluating CFR during a pandemic is a hazardous exercise. Aside from the issue of whether or not a death has been caused by the influenza infection, cases tend to be detected initially among severely ill patients with a higher probability of dying," they conclude.

This leads to an over estimation of how lethal a virus is, they note.

Swine flu first erupted in Mexico in April, and has since swept across the globe, infecting hundreds of thousands and leaving more than 1,800 dead, according to the World Health Organisation.

earlier related report

Give flu vaccine to nurses, chronic sick first: EU experts
Pregnant women, health workers and people with underlying health problems should receive swine flu vaccines ahead of the rest of the population, EU experts recommended Tuesday.

There was no call for children to be prioritised.

A previous idea to include young people in the list of those to be vaccinated first "was abandoned", an EU source said, without giving a reason.

"All persons from six months old with underlying chronic conditions (e.g. chronic respiratory diseases; chronic cardiovascular diseases and persons with congenital or acquired immunodeficiency)," should be vaccinated first, the experts from the 27 EU nations said in a written statement.

Those with the most severe symptoms should be at the head of the queue, they added.

Pregnant women and "health care workers" were the other two categories prioritised by the European Union Health Security Committee and the Early Warning and Response authorities.

The experts, who thus backed proposals from the European Commission, stressed that "it is the responsibility and mandate of each (EU) member state to develop a vaccination strategy for influenza A(H1N1)", known as swine flu.

"The priority groups identified... are indicative and countries may wish to adapt the prioritisation in line with their epidemiology, health services provisions and resources," the experts agreed.

The approach may also need to be changed "as the pandemic progresses".

EU health experts had already declared that there is no point in pre-emptive school closures or delaying the start of the new term in order to tackle swine flu.

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Give flu vaccine to nurses, chronic sick first: EU experts
Brussels (AFP) Aug 25, 2009
Pregnant women, health workers and people with underlying health problems should receive swine flu vaccines ahead of the rest of the population, EU experts recommended Tuesday. There was no call for children to be prioritised. A previous idea to include young people in the list of those to be vaccinated first "was abandoned", an EU source said, without giving a reason. "All persons ... read more







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