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Tokyo (AFP) May 18, 2011 Some of Japan's biggest firms remain unable to forecast their prospects for the coming months due to the impact of March's massive earthquake, which is expected to plunge the economy into recession. Automakers such as Toyota, electronics giants such as Sharp and airline All Nippon Airways skipped annual forecasts citing uncertainty over the scale of disruption that will also be seen in Japan's first quarter GDP data Thursday. "While the earthquake occurred late in the quarter, the contraction in activity after the earthquake will likely be enough to bring down the growth rate in Q1 deep into negative territory," noted BNP Paribas' chief Japan economist Ryutaro Kono. The economy shrank an annualised 2.0 percent in the first three months of this year, economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires said, marking the second-straight quarterly contraction as production, exports and consumption tumble. A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Japanese firms' extraordinary losses due to the March 11 earthquake and tsunami will likely hit 2.0 trillion yen ($25 billion), according to the Nikkei business daily. Economists see the impact lasting into the third quarter. "Corporate profits will likely be negatively impacted until around the July-September quarter," said Hiroshi Watanabe, economist at Daiwa Institute of Research. "It will be after the October-December quarter when the economy will start picking up as reconstruction demand starts materialising" and supplies of key components such as automobile microprocessors normalise, he said. Shattered supply chains and rolling power shortages forced companies such as Sony and Toyota to temporarily shut plants in the weeks after the disaster. Japan's industrial output tumbled by its largest amount on record in March. Many component manufacturers are based in the worst-hit regions of Japan, their facilities damaged by the 9.0 magnitude earthquake or inundated by the giant wave that followed. Analysts say power shortages also threaten the economy, and while initial fears of a supply-demand imbalance going into the summer months have eased slightly, the situation remains volatile, noted Asia brokerage CLSA. Tokyo Electric Power, which powers a region that contributes more than a third of Japan's gross domestic product, is battling an atomic emergency at its Fukushima Daiichi plant and other facilities remain shut following the quake. Toyota, which like other automakers was hit by a shortage of components, reported a fourth quarter net profit decline of 77 percent, and has warned that production will not fully recover before the end of the year. It said it took a 110 billion yen hit to operating profit due to the quake. Nissan was the only one of Japan's big three automakers to post improved net income in the period. Honda saw a 38 percent fall. However, while "Japanese carmakers may fall into the red in the first quarter, a strong recovery is expected for the rest of the fiscal year," said Mamoru Kato, auto analyst at Tokai Tokyo Research Center. Japanese drinks maker Kirin Holdings swung into the red during the first quarter ended March due to a special loss related to an earthquake-damaged brewery. Costs hit 126 billion yen at JX Holdings, which saw two of its eight refineries severely damaged by the disasters, as it suspended another refinery temporarily and suffered damage to petrol stations and oil tank facilities. The impact has been exacerbated by tumbling Japanese consumer confidence, which in April fell at the fastest pace on record, say analysts. "The initial effect of the disaster on the supply side of the economy was compounded by the negative impact of falling consumer demand," noted Capital Economics. "The declines in March alone were almost certainly enough to offset any increase in activity in the first two months of the year and tip the economy into recession." dwa-si-oh-mis/ft/dan
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