S.Africa risks 15,000 deaths by 2050 if green transition delayed: study
by AFP Staff Writers
Johannesburg (AFP) Oct 24, 2023

More than 15,000 people could die by 2050 from air pollution-related conditions if coal-dependent South Africa delays decommissioning its power plants beyond 2030, a think tank said Tuesday.

A new study by Helsinki-based nonprofit organisation the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) revealed that delaying the decommissioning of South Africa's coal-fired power plants beyond 2030 "would cause a projected 15,300 excess air pollution-related deaths" between 2023 and 2050.

The delay could also cost the country's economy more than $18 billion.

Earlier this year, the country's electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa announced plans to reschedule the decommissioning of some of the country's power plants and suggested refurbishing others.

"The air pollutant emissions from prolonged operation of the plants would have a major impact on public health in South Africa" the research centre said in the study.

According to CREA, 6,200 of the extra deaths would be due to exposure to particulate matters, 3,500 due to exposure to nitrogen dioxide, and 5,700 due to exposure to sulphur dioxide.

Some of the illnesses those exposed could suffer include asthma, premature and underweight babies, depression, pneumonia and bronchitis and dementia, the NGO said.

Currently, only one of the African heavyweight's set of power plants have been retired -- although not yet fully decommissioned, its closure has avoided 220 deaths, the study said.

South Africa remains one of the world's top 12 largest polluters and seventh largest coal producer.

"South Africa has a number of air pollution hotspots where air quality does not meet national air quality standards, let alone the WHO's health-based guidelines" it said.

Coal is a bedrock of South Africa's economy, employing almost 100,000 people and accounting for 80 percent of electricity production.

But the country is facing a power crisis with scheduled outages that last up to 12 hours a day, which has sparked a renewed debate on the transition to cleaner energy.

The transition has been hampered by infighting among the government, which has a long history of support from labour unions representing mine workers.

In June, energy minister Gwede Mantashe, who has in the past been vocal in his support for the coal lobby, was accused of snubbing a billion-dollar green hydrogen deal launched in partnership with the Netherlands and Denmark.

"Timely decommissioning of the ageing coal power plants would reduce total operating and maintenance costs," CREA said.

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