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WATER WORLD
Seas face biodiversity shakeup even under 2 C warming
by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) June 1, 2015


Seals help scientists probe remote seas
London (AFP) June 1, 2015 - Seals equipped with sensors on their foreheads are helping scientists collect data from some of the most remote corners of the world, advancing research on global warming, ice cover and weather forecasting.

The project has involved more than 1,000 seals since it began in 2004 and on Monday the international scientists behind it launched the portal "Marine Mammals Exploring the Oceans Pole-to-pole" (www.meop.net) with the data collected so far.

"They are taking data from places where there has been virtually no data before. It's unique," said Mike Fedak, head of the Sea Mammal Research Unit at St Andrew's University, which developed the tags.

"This data can be used in lots of different ways including for measuring the movement of glaciers, which impacts on the world's oceans," he told AFP.

The monitors are battery-powered and intended to last for months at a time, collecting measurements for salinity and temperature that are then beamed back to researchers via satellite in short messages.

Other monitors being developed would measure oxygen levels in the water and the amount of chlorophyll, which would be a way of measuring carbon dioxide levels and the phenomenon of ocean acidification.

Since the start of the project, some 400,000 environmental profiles have been produced.

Each profile is based on a seal dive, some of which can go down as deep as 2,100 metres (6,890 feet).

"The information sent back to us gives us details about the seal's immediate physical environment. It's like tweeting," said Lars Boehme, a lecturer at St Andrew's.

The sensors are non-invasive and fall off when the seals moult. They have been tried out on around 100 marine species, including turtles, whales and sharks.

"They're not easy to do. They require a lot of sophisticated software and they have limited energy," Fedak said.

"You have to make the most of the battery. You want it to last 10 months through the Antarctic winter!"

The project involves an international consortium from 11 countries: Australia, Brazil, Britain, Canada, China, France, Germany, Greenland, Norway, South Africa and United States.

The oceans will undergo a dramatic turnover in biodiversity even if the UN meets its goal of limiting of global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), scientists said Monday.

Species that need cooler waters will migrate or become extinct, to be replaced by ones that can survive in warmer seas -- with major consequences for fisheries.

"If climate change is not tackled quickly, it will lead to a massive reorganisation of marine biodiversity on a planet-wide scale," said France's National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), whose scientists took part in the investigation.

The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, first examined biodiversity changes in three eras of Earth's history.

The first was the mid-Pliocene, a warm period which ended about three million years ago.

The second was a much colder time -- the peak of the last Ice Age, also called the Last Glacial Maximum, from about 26,500 to 20,000 years ago.

The third was from 1960 to 2013, when man-made global warming cranked into high gear.

The scientists then compared these patterns to warming projections for 2100, which vary according to greenhouse gas emission levels.

Under the most optimistic forecast, assuming average warming of about 1 C, there would be only minor changes in biodiversity by 2100, the team found.

Severe warming -- on current trends, Earth is on track for up to 4.8 C this century alone -- would cause the biggest ocean species change in the last three million years.

Worryingly, even if UN members meet the 2 C goal, biodiversity shift by 2100 would be triple that of the last half-century, the team said.

The study, headed by Gregory Beaugrand of the University of Science and Technology in Lille, northern France, focused on species in the upper 200 metres (650 feet) of the ocean, the most valuable part of the ecosystem for humans.

Part of the work is based on theorised species change, as actual knowledge of ocean biodiversity and species behaviour is in many cases limited.

In addition, there are many gaps in understanding how warming will affect a vast, complex body like the ocean.

Even so, the results leave no doubt that the bigger the warming, the greater the biodiversity shift, the scientists said.

The change will be greater in waters that today are cold or temperate -- new species will expand into these regions but "this will not compensate global species extinction," the study warned.


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