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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Study: Climate change makes allergies worse, doesn't increase diagnoses
by Brian P. Dunleavy
Washington DC (UPI) Nov 5, 2021

Children with asthma in Los Angeles have not seen an increase in allergy diagnoses, despite effects from climate change on the air they breathe, a study presented Friday during the American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology annual meeting found.

The percentage of children in the Los Angeles area with allergies to dust mites, cat, dog, cockroach, tree pollen, grass pollen and weed pollen remained relatively unchanged between 1999 to 2014, the data showed.

For example, the percentage of children with allergies to at least one grass, tree, weed or dog allergen held steady at 0.25% or less over the 15-year period.

Similarly, the percentage of children with allergies to dust mites or cockroaches was 0.35% or less over the entire period.

This is despite documented increases in the length of growing seasons and pollen counts due to climate change, they said.

"Although temperatures have been rising and pollen loads increasing, if someone is not genetically predisposed to allergies, they are not likely to be sensitized to more allergens," study co-author Dr. Lyne Scott said in a press release.

"The growing season is year-round in L.A. and people with allergies who are already sensitized to pollens suffer more intensely when the growing season is longer, or the air quality isn't good," said Scott, an allergist who practices in Los Angeles.

However, those with allergies may have worse symptoms because of the effects of climate change, she added.

A study published earlier this year suggested that allergy symptoms may worsen for sufferers due to the warming climate.

Still, despite dire predictions, there is little evidence that climate change will necessarily increase the number of people with allergies.

For this study, the researchers tested nearly 6,000 children in Los Angeles who had been diagnosed with asthma and allergic rhinitis, or hay fever, for allergies to dust mites, cat, dog, cockroach, tree pollen, grass pollen and weed pollen, using standard skin prick tests.

In these tests, allergists prick the skin of a test subject with a pin containing a sample of an allergen and monitor the reaction.

If the skin reacts, such as with a rash, that indicates the test subject is likely allergic to the substance.

After performing more than 123,000 tests on study participants, the researchers found no increase in the number who experienced "allergic sensitizations" over the 15-year study period.

When a person's immune system becomes sensitized to an allergen, or an otherwise harmless substance such as dust or dog hair, they will likely develop symptoms of an allergy each time they are exposed to that same allergen, the researchers said.

High pollen counts, for example, do not mean that individual allergy sufferers will be affected, they said.

This is because there are many types of pollen, from various kinds of trees, from grass and from a variety of weeds. As a result, a high overall pollen count does not always indicate a strong concentration of the specific pollen to which individuals are allergic.

"We were somewhat surprised at the results as we expected there would be an increase in the number of kids with asthma who were sensitized to pollen and other allergens," study co-author Dr. Kenny Kwong said in a press release.

"Between 80% to 90% of children with asthma have allergy triggers, which is why it's important for children with asthma to be tested for allergies," said Kwong, an allergist who also practices in Los Angeles.

How climate summit pledges may, or may not, affect heating
Glasgow (AFP) Nov 5, 2021 - After a week of negotiations filled with grand announcements from nations promising to accelerate the decline of fossil fuels, where do the pledges put projected emissions halfway through the COP26 climate summit?

Countries came in to the UN-led negotiations with their latest national emissions cutting pledges -- known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs -- placing Earth on course to warm 2.7C this century.

Assuming all net-zero plans are kept and implemented in full, that falls to 2.2C.

The Paris Agreement, the bedrock accord that aims to chart humanity's path away from catastrophic heating, commits nation to limit temperatures to "well below" 2C and to work towards a safer 1.5-C cap.

This week saw several new announcements, including India vowing to be net-zero by 2070 and an international agreement to cut 30 percent of global methane emissions by 2030.

Experts say these and other pledges could have a significant effect on temperature rises.

1.8C?

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, on Thursday said that analysis by his organisation -- which has yet to be published -- showed that if all COP26 pledges were implemented it would limit heating to 1.8C.

He stressed however that the figure was heavily dependent on nations making the swift emissions cuts needed to implement net-zero plans.

"What is essential is for governments to turn their pledges into clear and credible policy actions and strategies today."

1.9?

An assessment by the University of Melbourne this week analysed countries new net-zero pledges, including India and largest emitter China's and found that they represent Assessment from the University of Melbourne said there had been a "strong step forward" towards 1.5C.

The team ran the NDCs through the same climate model used on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's most recent report.

They found that the new promises -- again, if implemented, would warm Earth 1.9C by 2100.

Between 1.5-2C?

UN Climate Change on Thursday issued a rapid assessment of the new NDCs.

While it has yet to convert the calculations to a temperature rise equivalent, it found that latest plans would see carbon emissions rise 13.7 percent by 2030.

This compares with the 45-percent drop in pollution needed for 1.5C.

It however said that for the 74 nations that have submitted detailed net-zero plans, emissions would be 70-79 percent lower in 2050 compared with 2019 levels.

Too soon?

The UN Environment Programme said last month that only emissions cuts this decade that are eight times deeper than planned would keep temperatures to 1.5C.

UNEP director Inger Andersen told AFP that she welcomed the numbers circulating after the first week of COP26.

"But we don't do back on the envelope calculation, we do technical work," she told AFP.

"Obviously the more announcements that are out there the better it is, but these announcements have to be followed by action."

Juan Pablo Osornio, from Greenpeace, said that the only figure that really mattered was 1.5C.

"If we breach 1.5C then some countries will simply disappear from the map," he said.

"So the takeaway from these calculations is that we need to see not just words but action, and a lot more of it."


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
'It kills me inside': Activists sound alarm on climate anxiety
Hong Kong (AFP) Nov 5, 2021
From Bangladesh to Britain to Nigeria, many young campaigners on the frontlines of the global fight for climate justice now face a new problem: the impact the crisis is having on their mental health. As thousands of delegates converged at the COP26 summit in Glasgow to discuss ways to tackle the environmental emergency, AFP interviewed three youth activists around the world who spoke candidly of their experience of climate anxiety. In Bangladesh, ranked seventh for countries most affected by ext ... read more

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