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DEMOCRACY
Suu Kyi down but Myanmar democracy movement not out, say analysts
by AFP Staff Writers
Bangkok (AFP) Dec 7, 2021

Cambodian strongman to visit Myanmar for talks with junta
Phnom Penh (AFP) Dec 7, 2021 - Cambodian strongman Hun Sen will travel to Myanmar for talks in January, his spokesman said Tuesday, becoming the first international leader to visit the country since its military seized power in a coup.

Myanmar has been in chaos and its economy paralysed since the generals ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's civilian government in February.

Hun Sen, who has ruled Cambodia with an iron grip for over three decades, on Monday pledged to "work with" the Myanmar junta, despite widespread international efforts to pile diplomatic pressure on the military.

Myanmar's junta-appointed foreign minister Wunna Maung Lwin held talks with Hun Sen in Phnom Penh on Tuesday, where he formally extended the invitation.

Eang Sophalleth, spokesman for the Cambodian premier, said the visit is scheduled for January 7 and 8.

The invitation comes as Cambodia attempts to bring Myanmar back into the fold of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) after a humiliating snub by the regional bloc.

In an unprecedented move for a group often criticised for its toothlessness, ASEAN barred junta chief Min Aung Hlaing from its October summit after it refused to let the bloc's envoy meet Suu Kyi.

The State Administration Council -- as the junta dubs itself -- "warmly welcomes this gesture to support Myanmar," its information minister Maung Maung Ohn told an online press briefing.

"Myanmar does not want to be apart from the ASEAN family."

Cambodia takes over ASEAN's rotating chairmanship next year and on Monday, Hun Sen said the Myanmar leader had the right to attend summits.

The junta has been an international pariah this year, with more than 1,300 people killed and thousands arrested in a brutal crackdown on dissent, according to a local monitor.

On Monday, Suu Kyi was sentenced to two years' detention for incitement against the military and breaching coronavirus rules, drawing fresh condemnation from around the world.

But diplomatic pressure has shown no sign of knocking the military regime off course.

The junta has justified the coup by alleging electoral fraud in last year's poll, and Suu Kyi faces a raft of further charges that could see her jailed for decades if convicted.

Myanmar's military hopes jailing Aung San Suu Kyi will be the "closing chapter" for its longtime nemesis and her party, but resistance to junta rule has already moved out from under her shadow, analysts say.

Massive protests and a bloody crackdown on dissent followed Suu Kyi's detention in the early hours of the February 1 putsch that ended the Southeast Asian country's democratic interlude.

While the junta has since brought a catalogue of charges against the 76-year-old Nobel laureate, and slapped her with a first sentence on Monday of two years in jail for incitement against the military and breaching coronavirus rules, pro-democracy demonstrators are moving beyond the movement she led decades ago.

Many protesters believe the current struggle must permanently root out military dominance of the country's politics and economy.

But for the junta, crushing Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) party she founded is seen as an end to a major source of anti-military resistance.

"These are the soft charges which the regime could have spared her, but chose not to," said independent analyst Soe Myint Aung of Monday's ruling, which drew swift international condemnation.

"The military seems to have doubled down on its highly oppressive approach" towards Suu Kyi the NLD, he added.

She faces a raft of other indictments in the closed-door junta court, including multiple charges of corruption -- each carrying a possible sentence of 15 years in prison.

The next verdict is expected on December 14 on another charge that she breached coronavirus rules during 2020 elections won by the NLD, according to a source familiar with the case.

In recent weeks, junta-appointed judges have sentenced other senior members of the NLD to long periods in jail.

A former chief minister was sentenced to 75 years in prison, while a close Suu Kyi aide and NLD speaker received 20 for treason.

"This period seems like the closing chapter, totally sidelining Suu Kyi and rupturing the party for good," independent analyst David Mathieson told AFP.

- New force -

Suu Kyi remains hugely popular in Myanmar, even if her international image has been tainted by her previous power-sharing deal with the generals and failure to speak up for the persecuted Rohingya minority.

After Monday's verdict, residents in Yangon banged pots and pans -- a practice traditionally associated with driving out evil spirits but which has been used since February to voice defiance.

Flash mob rallies and adoption of the three-finger pro-democracy salute have become prominent symbols since the coup, showing younger activists share more in common with contemporaries in Hong Kong and Thailand than the elderly veterans of their own country's political struggles.

Analysts also say hundreds have trekked to rebel-held areas for combat training or joined "people's defence forces" to fight back against the military -- shunning Suu Kyi's core principle of non-violence.

A shadow government dominated by ousted lawmakers from Suu Kyi's party has sought to fan the flames, declaring a "people's defensive war" against the junta.

The months of bloodshed have left a shrinking space for the kind of compromise between the NLD and the military that characterised Suu Kyi's government, even as the junta says it wants to hold fresh polls.

"Being involved in any future elections will likely be dangerous... former NLD members will be branded as turncoats and could be targeted by the resistance," Mathieson said.

It is more likely the party will continue to exist as a vehicle working to overturn the putsch, he added, but will be made up of disparate elements working to mobilise civil and armed resistance against the generals.

In seeking to remove Suu Kyi and the NLD from the field, the State Administration Council -- as the junta calls itself -- may have opened up space for a new unknown, he added.

"Perhaps the SAC have created a political force of a different stripe that could prove even more determined than Suu Kyi to end military rule?" Mathieson said.


Related Links
Democracy in the 21st century at TerraDaily.com


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DEMOCRACY
International outcry as Myanmar junta jails Suu Kyi for two years
Yangon (AFP) Dec 6, 2021
Myanmar's ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi was jailed for two years on Monday after being found guilty of incitement against the military and breaching Covid rules - in a ruling that drew swift international condemnation. A special court initially sentenced the 76-year-old Nobel laureate to four years in prison, but she was partially "pardoned" hours later by the junta chief, who halved the sentence to two years. Suu Kyi has been detained since the generals staged a coup and ousted her government ... read more

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