Spotted just four months ago, the new A(H1N1) influenza virus spread by June into a global pandemic and experts warn it could take a toll on productivity and financial systems, depending on the severity of outbreaks.

About 1,800 people have died in the pandemic that now affects more than 170 countries, according to the World Health Organization.

Though the number of cases reported to WHO has topped 182,000, the United Nations health watchdog cautions the real number is higher because countries are no longer required to test and report individual cases.

Health officials are gearing up for a resurgence in cases as the northern hemisphere enters winter. So far swine flu infections generally have been relatively mild, with typical flu symptoms that last about a week.

However, the pandemic virus could mutate into a more deadly form. Officials are projecting a shortfall in vaccines being rushed to market in hopes of warding off a potential global health disaster.

Faced with the unpredictable nature of flu viruses, economists say it is difficult to assess the impact of swine flu on the delicate global economic recovery taking shape amid the worst world recession since World War II.

Will the elephant leave the party quietly or run amok?

"As the severity of A(H1N1) is so far not severe, we would not expect the magnitude of the shock to the economy to be large relative to GDP (gross domestic product)," said Simonetta Nardin, a spokeswoman at the International Monetary Fund.

"The main threat to financial stability is the risk that high levels of absenteeism could lead to breakdowns in the functioning of key financial systems," she told AFP.

School closures would exacerbate absenteeism, further reducing workplace productivity.

Nardin said that the effects of swine flu on global financial stability and the world economy would be covered in future updates of the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report and World Economic Outlook (WEO), "as warranted by events."

World Bank experts have estimated the potential economic costs of a global influenza pandemic could range from 0.7 percent to 4.8 percent of global GDP depending on the severity of the outbreak.

The lower estimate was benchmarked on the Hong Kong flu of 1968-1969, while the upper bound was based on the devastating 1918-1919 Spanish flu, which infected an estimated one third of the world's population and caused 50 million deaths.

Based on the IMF estimate of 2009 global GDP of 54.863 trillion dollars, the swine flu pandemic, using the World Bank simulation, could cost the global economy between 384 billion dollars and 2.633 trillion dollars.

"In the case of a serious flu, 70 percent of the overall economic cost would come from absenteeism and efforts to avoid infection," World Bank experts wrote in the Global Development Finance report released in June.

"Generally speaking, developing countries would be hardest hit, because higher population densities, relatively weak health care systems, and poverty accentuate the economic impacts in some countries."

The swine flu virus was first identified in California in late April and officials linked the new virus to an outbreak of illnesses in Mexico.

Mexico has borne the brunt of the economic costs of the epidemic, particularly in the transportation and tourism sectors.

"While we expect these effects to dissipate quickly following the peak of the epidemic in May, we estimate that the swine flu epidemic will have lowered GDP growth in Mexico on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 percent in 2009," an IMF official said, on condition of anonymity.

"These effects are already factored into our baseline outlook for growth in Mexico of negative 7.3 percent in 2009, as released in the July 2009 WEO," the official said.

earlier related report
WHO says preparation vital for next swine flu wave
World Health Organization chief Margaret Chan on Friday urged governments to prepare for a likely second wave of swine flu cases, cautioning they will face tough decisions on how to dispense vaccines.

Chan's statement came as more than two dozen pharmaceutical companies around the world scramble to produce a safe and effective vaccine against A(H1N1) influenza, with the northern hemisphere's winter fast approaching.

"We cannot say for certain whether the worst is over or the worst is yet to come," Chan said via videotaped address at the start of a three-day symposium on flu in the Asia-Pacific region.

"We need to be prepared for whatever surprises this capricious new virus delivers next... constant random mutation is the survival mechanism of the microbial world.

"We also need to prepare for a second or even a third wave of spread as typically seen in past pandemics."

About 1,800 people have died since the A(H1N1) virus was first uncovered in April, according to the latest update from the WHO issued this week. The vast majority of those deaths have been recorded in the Americas.

The WHO declared a global pandemic in June, and the UN health agency now says there are confirmed cases in more than 170 countries.

While the epidemic appears to be weakening in the southern hemisphere, preparations should be stepped up in the northern hemisphere as the seasonal flu season approaches, Chan said.

"Like all influenza viruses, H1N1 has the advantage of surprise on its side," she said.

"We have the advantage of science and rational investigation on our side, supported by... data collection, analysis and communication that are unprecedented in their power."

Chan said the issue of how to ensure adequate vaccine supplies worldwide needed to be tackled "head on."

"We need to gather advice on priority groups for initial protection," Chan said.

"This is one of the most difficult decisions governments around the world will need to make, especially as we know that supplies will be extremely limited for some months to come."

The WHO said earlier this week that countries in the northern hemisphere alone had ordered more than one billion doses of swine flu vaccine, sparking warnings about shortages, given the intense demand and production delays.

A Chinese drug company, Sinovac Biotech, this week announced positive preliminary data from its clinical trials after giving test subjects just one dose of its vaccine.

But many experts have said that double doses will be needed because most people have no immunity to A(H1N1).

WHO assistant director general Keiji Fukuda said that nations should share information about swine flu vaccines in the same way that data about the virus has been shared.

"In this kind of situation, the access to vaccines, the access to other critical benefits by all countries, is really as important as the sharing of information on viruses," Fukuda said.

In addition to speeding up access to vaccines and anti-viral drugs, the WHO response to a possible second wave of swine flu cases would focus on tracking and monitoring outbreaks and providing information and support, he said.

"The preparedness undertaken by many countries and organisations really did make a significant difference in the response" to the virus so far, Fukuda said.

"It is clear however that we still need to continue to work on the preparedness aspect. What this really means is that we need to improve awareness and knowledge and strengthen national and international capacities."

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