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Tanzania earthquake toll climbs to 14 dead, 200 injured
By Erick Kabendera
Dar Es Salaam (AFP) Sept 11, 2016


Odds of mega-quake rise at high tide: study
Paris (AFP) Sept 12, 2016 - The same gravitational force that creates high tides when the Moon and Sun align may also play a role in triggering major earthquakes, according to a study released Monday.

Better understanding of this mechanism could help predict when known faults are more likely to produce killer quakes, researchers said.

"Large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress," the scientists concluded in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Geoscience.

When the tug of gravity is strongest, they added, "the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases."

For centuries after the discovery that solar and lunar forces affect the ocean tides, scientists speculated whether they also cause Earth's crust to buckle and fracture.

But only recently has statistical research started to establish a firm link between planetary alignments and tremblors.

Satoshi Ide, a professor at the University of Tokyo, and colleagues zeroed in on large earthquakes -- magnitude 5.5 or greater -- around the world over the last two decades.

His team reconstructed the size of gravitational pull, known as "tidal stress", in the two weeks prior to each tremor.

They found no clear correlation with smaller quakes.

Many of the largest earthquakes, however, occurred during periods when the pull of the Moon and Sun were particularly forceful.

These included the December 26, 2004 quake in Sumatra, which ravaged a large swath of the island and delivered a deadly tsunami towards south and southeast Asia. Some 220,000 people died.

- Spring tide danger -

The same link held for two other mega-quakes, the 2010 tremblor near Maule, Chile, and the 9.0 magnitude quake off the coast of Japan's Honshu Island that claimed about 19,000 lives and crippled the Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011.

Exactly how large earthquakes start and evolve is still poorly understood.

One theory suggests that all quakes begin with a tiny fracture and grow, in a cascading process, into large-scale ruptures.

If this is true, then the new study suggests that the likelihood of this happening increases during the Spring tide, the period just after a new or full Moon.

The findings "can be used to improve probabilistic earthquake forecasting, especially for extremely large earthquakes," Ide and colleagues concluded.

Every day, there are numerous small earthquakes worldwide.

But only a tiny fraction of these events grows into the kind of giant tremor that can topple buildings and launch devastating tsunamis.

The new results, Ide told AFP -- derived from a statistical analysis of a large number of tremblors -- cannot explain why some small quakes turn into mega ones at Spring tide, while others do not.

A 5.7-magnitude earthquake that struck northwest Tanzania, close to Lake Victoria and the borders of Uganda and Rwanda, has killed at least 14 people and injured 200, local authorities said Sunday.

As rescuers scrambled to find survivors from the Saturday quake in the worst-hit town Bukoba, premier Kassim Majaliwa headed there to attend a mourning ceremony at its stadium. President John Magufuli, who is from the region, said he was "deeply saddened."

Bukoba's district commissioner Deodatus Kinawilo, said "so far 14 people have been confirmed dead and 200 injured. They are receiving treatment in different areas impacted by the earthquake."

A group of 15 boys' secondary school boarders in Bukoba, located in Kagera province close to the epicentre of the quake, were believed to be among the dead and injured.

The previous toll from local authorities was 13 dead and 203 injured.

The epicentre of the 1227 GMT quake was 23 kilometres (15 miles) east of the north-western town of Nsunga, in Bukoba district near Lake Victoria, according to the US Geological Survey.

Bukoba suffered widespread damage, with 270 houses demolished and electricity disrupted, the Red Cross said in a statement.

Its main hospital was stretched to nearly full capacity and had limited stocks of medicine.

"Telecommunications have been disrupted and we are trying to get a clear picture of the damage to hospitals and other essential infrastructure," Andreas Sandin, Red Cross operations coordinator in East Africa and the Indian Ocean Islands, said in a statement.

"We ran out immediately, part of my house collapsed," Bukoba resident Jonathan Mbelwa was quoted as saying in Tanzania's Swahili-language Habari Leo newspaper.

"Even the old people say they've never seen an earthquake as big as this in these parts," he added.

Earthquakes are fairly common in the Great Lakes region but are almost always of low intensity.

An AFP correspondent in Dar es Salaam whose mother's family lives in Bukoba said 10 family houses had collapsed.

No damage was reported in the economic capital, Dar es Salaam, which is located some 1,400 kilometres southeast of Bukoba.

"It's safe in Dar but we are still worried about the safety of our family," the AFP correspondent added. "The regional hospital is overwhelmed and can't handle any more patients."

The earthquake was felt as far away as Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and Kenya, the US Geological Survey said.

"So far, no further damages have been reported in Kenya, and minor damages reported in Uganda," the Red Cross said.

But in Rwanda the shaking was felt across the country, with hotel staff and half-dressed visitors seen rushing out of their rooms in the capital, Kigali, when the quake struck.

In the Burundi capital, Bujumbura, the president's spokesman Willy Nyamitwe tweeted "I just felt an earthquake at 1429".


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Previous Report
SHAKE AND BLOW
13 dead, 200 injured in Tanzania earthquake: local official
Dar Es Salaam (AFP) Sept 10, 2016
At least 13 people were killed and 203 injured in northwest Tanzania when a 5.7 magnitude earthquake hit the country Saturday, local authorities told AFP. "The toll has climbed from 11 people dead to 13 and from 192 injured to 203," said Deodatus Kinawilo, District Commissioner for Bukoba, the town close to the epicentre of the quake. "For now, the situation is calm and under control," s ... read more


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