In countries like Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Myanmar, many civilian rulers have learned the bitter lesson that the allegiance of the armed forces can mean the difference between their survival or downfall.

Analysts said that weak civilian institutions and the military's status as frequently the most organised and disciplined force in a country, often creates conditions ripe for army intervention.

Political leaders also often try to court the favour of military officers to remain in power, they said.

"As a matter of practical politics, if you are in power you have to have Ceasar's legions on your side, pointing their spears not at you but at the enemy," said Rex Robles, who runs a political risk consultancy in Manila.

Robles, one of the reform-minded junior officers who led a mutiny against former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986, said corruption and bad government are also triggers for the military to act.

The 1986 mutiny sparked a popular civilian uprising that ended Marcos' 20-year rule.

"It's essentially bad governance," Robles told AFP. "Corruption results in the weakening of institutions like the judiciary."

John Harrison, a security specialist at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said people look to the military in times of crisis because they are organised, disciplined and armed.

"In countries that are in the early stages of economic development the strongest institution is often the military," Harrison told AFP.

"Because of this cohesion and access to resources, when the military views the civilian leadership as corrupt, ineffective and not operating in the national interest they often feel the need to intervene to restore order."

Modern Southeast Asian history bears out this analysis.

Thailand has had 18 coups since 1932 when it became a constitutional monarchy, and since then the military has never been fully pushed to the background.

In its latest political role, the army ousted elected premier Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006 and stayed in charge for a year until elections in December 2007.

It is now enforcing a state of emergency imposed by current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, and on Tuesday successfully cleared protesters from their last encampment at Abhisit's offices.

In the Philippines, despite a vow to "go back to barracks," military officers mounted several coup attempts against Marcos' successor, Corazon Aquino.

She survived the attempts, thanks to the loyalty of key military commanders who exerted considerable influence during her administration.

Fidel Ramos, the West Point-trained cigar-chomping former general who stood by Aquino, was later democratically elected president.

Former Philippine president Joseph Estrada was ousted halfway into his six-year term in 2001 after the military withdrew its support following allegations of corruption and incompetence.

The military also remains a formidable political force in Indonesia.

Former general Suharto came to power in 1965 following a coup against nationalist leader Sukarno and ruled with an iron fist until he was deposed in 1998.

Current leader Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is a former army general who was democratically elected.

Myanmar has been under military rule since 1962. The incumbent junta came to power in 1988 after crushing pro-democracy demonstrations.

Elections were held in 1990 but the junta refused to honour the results won by the political party of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent 13 of the last 19 years under house arrest.

Analysts said it would be difficult to keep the region's army in their bunkers.

"It's hard because they have already tasted power," said Robles, referring to former military officers appointed to high civilian posts as a reward for their loyalty.

earlier related report
Thai tourism faces 200,000 job losses over crisis: industry
Thailand's battered tourism sector could shed up to 200,000 jobs this year, industry experts warned as violent street battles in Bangkok triggered mass cancellations.

Anti-government demonstrators who forced the cancellation of a major Asian summit on the weekend shifted their campaign to the capital, clashing with security forces Monday in defiance of a state of emergency.

Apichart Sankary, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, said that television images beamed around the world of troops firing volleys of gunfire to disperse protesters had alarmed potential visitors.

"Layoffs are inevitable. We may lose up to 200,000 people this year if the situation is not resolved," he said, appealing to the government to resolve the turmoil as soon as possible.

Bewildered tourists in Bangkok said they feared for their safety, while others were irritated that major shopping centres were shuttered as protesters loyal to ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra rampaged through the capital.

It was not exactly the "Land of Smiles" many visitors had expected.

Thailand's tourism industry accounts for five percent of gross domestic product and employs two million people, or up to seven percent of the country's total workforce.

The industry has already been worn down by the SARS epidemic in 2003, the 2004 Asian tsunami, a 2006 coup and last year's devastating closure of Bangkok's two airports by a separate protest movement.

Continued instability will wreak more havoc on the tourism sector, which is already bruised from the impact of the global economic crisis.

"The question is how far and how long this situation will go on," said Robert McIntosh, a specialist in the hotel sector with property consultancy CB Richard Ellis.

"The declaration of the state of emergency and the issuance of travel advisories by other countries can be very detrimental to international travel," the Singapore-based McIntosh told AFP.

"People will redirect their holidays to places like Bali and Vietnam."

Australia, China, Russia and Hong Kong have joined governments around the world in urging their citizens to avoid or reconsider travelling to Thailand as the protests raged.

Apichart said that 1,000 people booked to travel on a cruise ship from Singapore to Thailand had opted to stay in the city-state, and that passengers who decided to come to Bangkok would be asked to stay in their hotels.

"Our overseas partners know that Thailand is split... They are scared of what's happening," he told AFP.

McIntosh said that Thailand's tourism sector had shown it was "resilient", but John Koldowski of the Pacific Asia Travel Association said the damage could be long-lasting.

"The longer this uncertainty continues, the more businesses will close and more people will be laid off not just in the travel and tourism industry but across the board," Koldowski told AFP.

The challenge is "how to restore Thailand's image internationally," he said. "It has been battered on many fronts and the impact has been cumulative. That could take some time."

Koldowski said even if the situation settles down, "there will always be the fear that things could boil over again very quickly and people will avoid Thailand because of that."

In its latest report released this month, the World Bank said Thailand's economy is expected to contract 2.7 percent this year from a growth of 2.6 percent in 2008.

But it said "significant downside risks remain," including the threat of political instability.

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