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CLIMATE SCIENCE
UN climate report comprehensive, but regional gaps persist
By Patrick GALEY
Paris (AFP) Aug 9, 2021

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report that generated shock waves on Monday is the most detailed assessment of climate science ever undertaken, advancing our understanding of how -- and how fast -- greenhouse gas emissions are changing the planet.

But experts caution that the comprehensive global review contains blind spots -- overlooking regions that are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change but where data on those impacts is severely lacking.

In its 40-page Summary for Policymakers, the IPCC presents three maps of the world, with regions divided up in to hexagons.

Each of the maps shows observed changes in extreme heat, rainfall and drought.

While there is a strong observed increase in extreme hot weather nearly everywhere, when it comes to rainfall and drought, South America, Africa and the Pacific Island states in particular are nearly blank slates.

Of the seven sub-regions of South America, only one -- the southeast -- has reliable rainfall data, and just one other -- the northeast -- has sufficient data on drought.

"It's important to mention that we can only use and assess the available literature," Paola Arias, associate professor at Colombia's University of Antioquia and an IPCC author, told AFP.

"South America has a very important role in regional climate but also an important source of moisture to Central America," said Arias, who helped design the three maps.

"We need more observational data. We don't have enough of it to study extreme events on a daily or hourly scale."

- Lack of research -

The IPCC provided a two-page fact sheet on observed and projected climate trends in Africa, but the paucity of data is inescapable in the maps.

Of the nine African sub-regions, the IPCC noted an observed increase in extreme rainfall for just two -- western and eastern southern Africa.

For the other seven it said "limited data and/or literature" were available.

Only half of the sub-regions provided sufficient data to determine an increase in rates of drought.

Mohamed Adow, director of the Nairobi-based climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa, likened the lack of data to the old philosophical adage: If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

"People in Africa are certainly aware of the overwhelming heat, rising seas and extreme weather on the continent, but if they are not being recorded by scientists it will be much harder for African voices to be heard in the climate debate to tackle it," he told AFP.

The IPCC report makes it crystal clear that "human activities" were responsible for the 1.1C of warming above preindustrial levels observed so far.

But Adow underscored a basic injustice: most climate-vulnerable nations are virtually blameless for the emissions that are driving ever more extreme weather.

"Africa is most affected and yet least responsible for climate change," he said.

"Sadly, it's also producing the least scientific research, and this lack of research is hurting the region's ability to adapt.

"We need to urgently address this and ensure researchers and funders come together and invest in filling these glaring gaps in climate research."

- Male-dominated -

Although more than half of the IPCC's report authors were first timers, their composition is still imbalanced, both geographically and in terms of gender.

Of the 116 authors credited with drafting or contributing to the report's summary, just 13 come from non-G20 nations, for example.

And the overall writing team is 72 percent male.

Maisa Rojas Corradi, coordinating lead author of the IPCC report's opening chapter and director of the Centre for Climate and Resilience Research in Chile, said efforts had been made to make this team more diverse.

"I know that this was a worry that was actively worked on when the author team was selected, they really tried to have more women and more regional representation," she told AFP.

Corradi said there were still too many obstacles stopping research conducted in regions where climate change is already hitting hard.

These include studies not written in English or not published in mainstream scientific journals, she said.

"If you live in a country where the scientific community is small or some aspects aren't being investigated comprehensively, then the IPCC can't really say anything."

And better representation within the IPCC author team is not just a case of equality: bringing in more data and regional perspectives will foster better scientific outcomes, Corradi said.

"It's critical to get a balanced report," she said. "You cannot monitor what you don't observe."

World shudders at 'terrifying' UN climate report
Paris (AFP) Aug 9, 2021 - World leaders, green groups and influencers reacted on Monday to a "terrifying" UN climate science report with a mix of horror and hopefulness as the scale of the emergency became abundantly clear.

US presidential envoy on climate and former secretary of state John Kerry said the IPCC report, which warned the world is on course to reach 1.5C of warming around 2030, showed "the climate crisis is not only here, it is growing increasingly severe".

Current US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in a statement that world leaders, the private sector and individuals must "act together with urgency and do everything it takes to protect our planet".

Frans Timmermans, the European Union's deputy climate chief, said the 3,500-page report proved "it's not too late to stem the tide and prevent runaway climate change".

Britain's Boris Johnson, whose government is hosting a crucial UN climate summit in November, said the assessment "makes for sobering reading".

"I hope today's IPCC report will be a wake-up call for the world to take action now, before we meet in Glasgow in November for the critical COP26 summit," he said.

French President Emmanuel Macron called for the November climate conference to fully recognise the gravity of the situation, saying on Twitter: "The time for outrage is behind us... In Glasgow, let's seal a deal that matches the urgency."

Former Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed said the document confirmed that climate-vulnerable nations such as his were "on the edge of extinction".

- 'Suicidal' -

Saleemul Huq, director of Dhaka-based environmental think tank ICCCAD, said the IPCC report was "the final warning that bubble of empty promises is about to burst".

He said it showed G20 countries needed to accelerate emissions cuts to ensure their economies are in line with the 1.5C target.

"It's suicidal, and economically irrational to keep procrastinating," Huq said.

The Indian government called the report a "clarion call for the developed countries to undertake immediate, deep emission cuts and decarbonisation of their economies".

India is the world's third-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases but its emissions per head are low owing to its large population of 1.3 billion.

The report "vindicates India's position that historical cumulative emissions are the source of the climate crisis that the world faces today," the environment ministry said in a statement.

Dorothy Guerrero, head of policy at Global Justice Now, said the report was a "terrifying warning of our future unless drastic action is taken."

"There is no denying the science of the climate crisis," she said.

"But policymakers refuse to face up to the fact that it is rooted in economics and a history of colonial exploitation."

- Action -

Many interpreted the IPCC's assessment as a clarion call to overhaul the fossil fuel-powered global economy.

"Where can we start? Almost everywhere," said Katherine Hayhoe, chief scientist for The Nature Conservancy.

"Accelerating the transition to clean energy; reforming our most environmentally damaging activities; and recalibrating financial flows to accelerate the economic transition."

Climate wunderkind Greta Thunberg said the report was a "solid (but cautious) summary" of the state of the planet.

"It doesn't tell us what to do," she said on Twitter.

"It is up to us to be brave and take decisions based on the scientific evidence provided in these reports. We can still avoid the worst consequences, but not if we continue like today, and not without treating the crisis like a crisis."

Ugandan climate justice activist Vanessa Nakate tweeted: "Scientists warn time running out on the 1.5C target! World leaders must get serious about climate change!"

- Fossil fall guys -

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Monday's report "must sound a death knell" for coal, oil and gas and warned that fossil fuels were destroying the planet.

Greenpeace was even more direct.

"Dear fossil fuel industry," the charity said on Twitter. "We'll see you in court."


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Acceleration of global warming 'code red' for humanity
Paris (AFP) Aug 9, 2021
We ignored the warnings, and now it's too late: global heating has arrived with a vengeance and will see Earth's average temperature reach 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels around 2030, a decade earlier than projected only three years ago, according to a landmark UN assessment published on Monday. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) bombshell - landing 90 days before a key climate summit desperate to keep 1.5C in play - says the threshold will be breached around 2050 ... read more

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