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DEMOCRACY
Walker's World: Britain's honeymoon

Polls show low support for democracy camp in Hong Kong: govt
Hong Kong (AFP) May 17, 2010 - Hong Kong's government on Monday said record low voter turnout for weekend by-elections designed to speed up political reform in the city showed lacklustre support for campaigners' tactics. The ballot, which angered Beijing and divided the city's democracy movement, came after five pro-democracy lawmakers from the Legislative Council quit in January to force what they said was a de facto referendum on the issue. Frustrated by what they say is China's intransigence, the lawmakers had hoped it would send the strongest signal yet to Beijing on the desire for greater democracy since the former colony was returned from Britain to China in 1997. However, the outcome of the vote was seen as academic since all pro-Beijing political parties boycotted the process with the government repeatedly dismissing it as a waste of taxpayers' money.

About 17 percent of Hong Kong's 3.4 million registered voters cast a vote but Chief Executive Donald Tsang and his senior ministers refused to vote. Democracy campaigners had earlier said they hoped for a 30 percent turnout. "This is the lowest-ever turnout rate for any Legislative Council election since the Handover, including general elections and by-elections," Stephen Lam, the secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs, said in a statement. "Thus it is clear that there is only a rather low level of support among the community with regard to the resignation and by-election plan." Chief Executive Tsang told a radio programme: "Hong Kong people have expressed their views.... All of us want democracy. But they've also told us they're generally satisfied with what has been put on the table."

The English-language South China Morning Post and Standard newspapers both ran front-page headlines focusing on the number of people who cast a ballot. "Low turnout deals blow to pan-democrats," the Post said. Tanya Chan, one of the five legislators who won back her seat on Sunday, said the turnout was decent in light of the government boycott. "It was not an easy decision for many people to vote because there were so many attacks and allegations against us from the government and pro-establishment camp," she told AFP. "We encouraged a lot of young people to participate and it let people learn more about how this government functions, or malfunctions." Under the current electoral system, only half of Hong Kong's 60-seat legislature is directly elected while the rest is selected by the pro-China business elite. Campaigners want the entire parliament to be directly elected.

They also want voters to be able to choose the city's chief executive, who is currently appointed by a Beijing-friendly election committee. Beijing has said that, at the earliest, Hong Kong's leader can be directly elected by 2017 and the legislature by 2020. James Sung, a political scientist at City University of Hong Kong, said the "radical" lawmakers' push for faster reforms could ultimately split the city's pro-democracy movement with Beijing eager to court moderate legislators. "It could separate them into two camps and that would change the whole political terrain," he told AFP. The weekend poll also gave a boost to the "radical" wing of the democracy movement which has garnered widespread support among younger people, Sung said. "But most people still want to see and maintain good relations (with mainland China)," he added. "They don't want Beijing to think they want independence or something like that."
by Martin Walker
London (UPI) May 17, 2010
Honeymoons are usually times of enchantment and the mood in Britain this week after the formation of the ground-breaking coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats has been rapturous.

But inevitably normal life will at some point resume. And the untried new coalition with its sudden exciting chemistry between the two leaders David Cameron and Nick Clegg will face some daunting and wholly predictable challenges.

The first is the dire state of the economy, with a budget deficit of more than 11 percent of gross domestic product. The new government is to introduce an emergency budget next month. It will without doubt contain some savage spending cuts and somber tax increases.

The first joint Cabinet meeting of the ministers of the new coalition agreed that they would cut their on salaries by 5 percent. It is widely expected that something similar is in store for public sector pay. The markets will demand such proof that the new government is serious, after Ireland cut the pay and pensions of its public servants by almost 20 percent, Greece is cutting by 7 percent and Spain last week announced a 5 percent public pay cut.

These cuts, or perhaps pay freezes for a number of years, will certainly affect Britain's civil servants, although various campaign promises imply that the military, the police and the doctors and nurses of the national health service will be spared. Even more money may have to be pared from the extraordinarily generous pension deals for public servants in Britain. They are inflation protected, linked to the final (and therefore highest) years of salary, and therefore unaffordable.

There will therefore before the end of this year be resentment and probably strikes that could affect wide swathes of public life, from interruptions in pension and social security payments to angry demonstrations by elderly pensioners.

This leads to the second bracing dose of reality that will truncate the honeymoon. The inevitable cuts and financial rigor will create interesting political opportunities for the Labor Party, which by the end of the summer will have a new and younger leadership, relatively unbruised by the sour and dispiriting decline of Gordon Brown's administration.

Whether it be former Foreign Secretary David Milliband or his brother Ed (former environment secretary) or Brown's henchman Ed Balls (former education secretary), Labor's new leader will know that his party is fighting for its life and must therefore go relentlessly on the attack.

Labor is haunted by the memory of Margaret Thatcher's musings of the 1980s that she hoped that socialism as a creed, and Labor as its vehicle, could be destroyed. Her dream was that the Liberals and moderate social democrat wing of Labor could ditch the left and the militant labor unions and become the natural alternative party of government. To avoid even a threat of this fate, Labor must use this period of coalition government to discredit and divide the Lib Dems.

"This coalition brings together Britain's biggest spenders and its biggest cutters, its most ardent Europhiles and Europhobes," former Labor Minister Andrew Adonis said last week. "If this government lasts five years, it will have defied every conceivable law of political gravity."

Labor's target will be that wide swathe of the Liberal Democrat party's rank-and-file (and its members of Parliament) who are genuine radicals, including the passionate environmentalists and fanatical pro-Europeans and anti-capitalists who will find themselves most at odds with the compromises of coalition.

The Lib Dems have already had to surrender their commitment against more nuclear power stations and know that their new Tory allies are widely hostile to the European Union. The Lib Dems have soft hearts and will warm to the plight of the pensioners and unemployed and local government employees who will bear a large part of the cuts to come. They are likely to prove a target-rich zone for Labor.

A further dose of reality will be delivered by the Conservative Party, which have already surrendered one of its cherished campaign promises, to raise the threshold at which inheritances taxes are imposed. There will be more Conservative heartache to come, including the near-certainty of a rise in the value added tax from 17.5 to 20 or even 22 percent.

The bulk of the Conservative MPs are Thatcher's children, profoundly skeptical of Europe and of taxes and of the state, and still strongly attached to the uncomplicated ideology of free market principles. Many of them have never warmed to Cameron's shift of the party to the electable center and most are dismayed by his promise of a national referendum on a system of proportional representation known as the Alternative Vote, which is likely to mean that neither Conservative nor Labor will ever again be in a position to govern alone. The Lib-Dems are likely always to hold the balance of seats in an AV Parliament.

"When it comes to the crunch, the splits will begin to show," notes Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair's former media czar.

The first crack in the coalition will be tested this week, when the French and Germans are seeking to ram through a new European system of regulations for hedge funds that would disproportionately hurt the City of London. It would also penalize Wall Street and the Obama administration's protests have been brusquely ignored.

The Lib Dems love Europe and the Tories despise it and the coalition must find a way to manage this crisis and its potential split. There will be more such tests to come. The honeymoon may be magical; the marriage will be bumpy.



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DEMOCRACY
Hong Kong holds by-elections in test for democracy camp
Hong Kong (AFP) May 16, 2010
Hong Kong on Sunday held by-elections triggered by pro-democracy lawmakers seeking to pressure Beijing into speeding up the pace of electoral reform in the territory. The election, which has angered Beijing and divided the city's democracy movement, comes after five lawmakers from the Legislative Council quit in January in a bid to force a de facto referendum on reform. Frustrated by wha ... read more







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