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Walker's World: The G20 treads water
Paris (UPI) Mar 16, 2009 The main achievement of the Group of 20 summit of finance ministers over the weekend was to stick together and maintain an appearance of unity and resolve in favor of more stimulus and no protectionism. But they did that already, back at the first G20 summit in Washington last November. Hence the mood of disappointment that greeted the close of the summit, symbolized by the German edition of the Financial Times with its headline "G20 Finance Ministers Decide Nothing." Given the clear indications of major policy differences between the Europeans and the Americans on how much stimulus might be needed, and how much new regulation for the banking system, the common determination to avoid any such splits at this mini-summit was important. But with just two weeks to go before the big event in London when the heads of government gather for the big G20 event, there is not much of a sign that it can or will produce anything more concrete. There is only so much that ringing political assertions of unity can achieve to restore confidence in the financial system when the world's main economies are visibly poised to topple from deep recession to full-scale depression. The host of Saturday's summit of finance ministers, Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, exuded confidence. He stressed repeatedly that markets could be sure that the G20 governments, which account for more than 80 percent of the world's economic output, "will do whatever it takes, for as long as it takes" to tackle the crisis. U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said there was now global support for government spending and stimulus "on a scale commensurate with the severity of the problem." Geithner also said he was gratified by the support for the U.S. plan to expand the funds available to the International Monetary Fund to help emerging countries in trouble. The only fault with that statement was that the plan was devised by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and by the IMF itself and that we so far have no clear indication of how much money will be involved. It looks to be between $250 billion and $500 billion. It is also unclear who will provide it, beyond the $100 billion already promised by Japan. The big differences between the first summit last November and the one coming on April 2 are that the United States is now fully committed to the G20 process, that there is now a consensus for fixing the banking system as a global priority, and that, as Geithner said, it was the "systematic failure of regulation" that led to the crisis. There is less agreement on the rules and even the regulator for the new banking code. The British want it to be the IMF; the Americans prefer the Financial Stability Forum; and the Europeans seem to be drafting their own, with the European Central Bank in the key role. The biggest difference of all is that the recession is now deeper and has spread much further and that jobs in the world's leading economies are being lost at a rate of well over a million a month. Still, some people were impressed by the pre-summit maneuvering. The Swiss government agreed to end centuries of banking secrecy, agreeing that it henceforth would provide information to tax authorities in other countries. And the developing countries have won a clear commitment for them to be given more weight in the councils of the IMF and World Bank and a crack at the top jobs hitherto reserved for Americans and Europeans. This push was led by the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), which published their own communique urging more and faster reform, with a hint that this would be the price of their further support and funding. Before the April 2 summit in London, the key event will come from Washington: Geithner's eagerly awaited statement on the details of his plan for addressing the steaming pile of toxic U.S. bank assets. If he is credible and convincing, that will provide a big boost to confidence. But he has to square a very difficult circle, dealing with them in a way that neither cheats the already restive American taxpayer nor provides too little relief to help the banks. The taxpayers, and their representatives in Congress, are just starting to comprehend the vast sums already committed in their name by the government and the Fed. So far, $4.6 trillion has been committed for investments in banks, corporate debt and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Another $2.3 trillion has been committed in loans or commitments for short-term lending to banks and other financial institutions. And a further $2.1 trillion has been committed to insuring and guaranteeing debt by all of the above. The grand total of $9 trillion is almost two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product. And this unprecedented sum has not yet saved the banks, nor fended off recession, nor returned lending to normal. The U.S. government and the Fed have taken unprecedented steps and done all or more than anyone could have expected. Little wonder that they now turn to the rest of the world to see what contribution they can make. And even less surprise that the Chinese are now publicly fretting about the stability of their dollar investments. Share This Article With Planet Earth
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