And those are the wounded that managed to find their way to a hospital, clinic or care center. Countless of less fortunate will perish in the inhospitable land as they die of thirst, infection, bombs and the enemy's weapons, or all the above.

Jet fighters of the Ethiopian Air Force are reported to have fired missiles and machine cannons on groups of retreating Somali Islamist fighters near the government outpost of Baidoa Tuesday. It was the third day that Ethiopians continue to use their air force in the conflict.

The fighting involves Somalia's interim -- and secular -- government, which is fighting against a wide collection of Islamist warlords who are believed by Washington to be backed by al-Qaida. The Ethiopians are backing the Somali government forces, now reported to be only about 40 miles from the capital, Mogadishu.

On one side of the conflict is Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi who is supporting Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf against Somali Islamist leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys.

The Islamists had initially taken a foothold in the southern part of the country. Last summer they stormed Mogadishu, forcing the government to flee. Initially at least, the Islamist rebels enjoyed the support of the people as they promised to impose law and order in what had become a chaotic society for nearly two decades. The Islamists imposed Islamic law, or sharia, in areas that fell under their control.

Somalia had been in a state of flux and anarchy since the departure of the last strongman, Siad Barre, who was ousted in a coup in 1991.

Somalia is a former British protectorate known as British Somaliland until the British withdrew in 1960 to permit it joining up with Italian Somaliland and form the new nation of Somalia.

In 1969, a coup headed by Mohammad Siad Barre saw the establishment of an authoritarian socialist rule. Barre managed to impose a degree of stability in the country for about 20 years. But he was overthrown in 1991 and the country split into complete anarchy with several provinces declaring themselves independent -- independence no country recognized.

The United Nations began a two-year humanitarian effort in 1993, primarily in the south, to alleviate famine conditions. But the U.N. withdrew in 1995 after taking significant casualties, including American troops who were killed when their helicopter crashed in Mogadishu. The incident involving the U.S. intervention was rendered famous in the book "Blackhawk Down" which was later made into a Hollywood blockbuster.

The mandate of the Transitional National Government, or TNG, was created in August 2000 in Arta, in nearby Djibouti. It expired in August 2003. That was followed by a two-year peace process led by the government of Kenya under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development; it concluded in October 2004 with the election of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed as Transitional Federal President of Somalia.

Meanwhile, another humanitarian crisis is in the making with unknown thousands of people fleeing the fighting. Already stretched thin by the crisis in the Darfur, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees fears that the swelling number of Somali refugees will hamper existing relief operations in the region. The U.N. relief agency said the fighting caused the displacement of approximately 34,000 Somalis who sought refuge in neighboring Kenya.

Once again, those numbers are just estimates. But as the Soviet dictator Josef Stalin once said, "A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic." The conflict in Somalia is beyond the tragedy but not quite yet a statistic.

related report

Ethiopia's Armed Forces, Seasoned In Conventional And Guerrilla War
London (AFP) Dec 20 - Ethiopia's armed forces are seasoned in both conventional and guerrilla tactics, both of which would be needed in any full-scale war with Somalia's Islamist movement, experts say. Ethiopian forces have waged two major conventional wars: eventually repelling a invasion Somalia launched in 1977; and fighting Eritrea to a stalemate in 1998-2000, according to experts at Jane's publishing group.

Ethiopian forces have also long waged counter-insurgency campaigns against various guerrilla groups at home. They honed both conventional and guerrilla tactics during the civil war that toppled Ethiopian former military dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.

"They may be a little ramshackle in some aspects of their training, but the Ethiopians have always been tough, mean fighters and they've got a lot of experience in the army," Jane's Defence Weekly's Helmoed Roemer Heitman said.

Jane's World Armies and the International Institute of Strategic Studies estimate the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) at between 150,000 to 180,000 personnel, backed by solid but mainly old Soviet-era ground and air power.

However, Heitman, who spoke to AFP by telephone from South Africa, said many of these troops are either tied down on the border with Eritrea or in waging counter-insurgency campaigns at home.

This means that Ethiopia would have to rely on its substantial airlift capability -- it has around a dozen Mi-17 troop transport helicopters -- to deploy a relatively small force over sprawling Somali territory, Heitman said.

The ENDF has other advantages in air power.

With half a dozen Sukhoi-27 bombers, he said, it could hit Somali airports and other targets to prevent the Islamist forces from bringing in supplies from abroad.

It also has 25 old MiG 21 and around a dozen MiG 23 ground attack planes as well as Mi24 attack helicopters which would boost Ethiopian ground advances, he said. However, it is not clear how many are in service, though.

"The Islamists will not have much beyond shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles... but you can fly above that," Heitman said.

Where the ENDF might lose its edge over the Somalis is when it comes to deploying appropriate vehicles, he said. Its main battle tanks are 170 old T-55s and 50 T-62s, with another 50 more recent T-72s acquired from Yemen, but tracked vehicles and artillery will be of little use in such a war and it is short of troop transports.

Any war would resemble more the campaigns waged by US and NATO forces in Afghanistan than the US-led war in Iraq, Heitman said.

In an article last month, Jane's World Armies said it believed that the United States has influenced tactics of certain elite Ethiopian units through its "counter-terrorism" program.

However, it was not immediately clear how deeply involved Washington was in the current showdown between Ethiopia and the Islamists.

Though Heitman expected the Ethiopians to defeat the Somali militias, he warned that Ethiopia might be bogged down in Somalia for years if no credible governing and military forces fill the void.

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